Religions and babies
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0:00 - 0:04I'm going to talk about religion.
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0:04 - 0:09But it's a broad and very delicate subject,
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0:09 - 0:11so I have to limit myself.
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0:11 - 0:14And therefore I will limit myself
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0:14 - 0:18to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.
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0:18 - 0:20(Laughter)
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0:20 - 0:22This is a very serious talk.
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0:22 - 0:26So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.
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0:26 - 0:29It's when the young couple whisper,
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0:29 - 0:32"Tonight we are going to make a baby."
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0:32 - 0:37My talk will be about the impact of religions
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0:37 - 0:41on the number of babies per woman.
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0:41 - 0:43This is indeed important,
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0:43 - 0:44because everyone understands
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0:44 - 0:47that there is some sort of limit
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0:47 - 0:50on how many people we can be on this planet.
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0:50 - 0:52And there are some people
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0:52 - 0:55who say that the world population is growing like this --
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0:55 - 0:57three billion in 1960,
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0:57 - 1:00seven billion just last year --
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1:00 - 1:01and it will continue to grow
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1:01 - 1:05because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,
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1:05 - 1:08and it may continue like this.
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1:08 - 1:11To what extent are these people right?
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1:11 - 1:16When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,
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1:16 - 1:20and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.
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1:20 - 1:22What has happened since,
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1:22 - 1:25and what do the experts predict will happen
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1:25 - 1:27with the number of children during this century?
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1:27 - 1:30This is a quiz. What do you think?
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1:30 - 1:34Do you think it will decrease to one billion?
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1:34 - 1:38Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?
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1:38 - 1:41Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,
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1:41 - 1:44or will it continue in the same fast rate
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1:44 - 1:46and be four billion children up there?
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1:46 - 1:50I will tell you by the end of my speech.
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1:50 - 1:55But now, what does religion have to do with it?
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1:55 - 1:57When you want to classify religion,
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1:57 - 1:59it's more difficult than you think.
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1:59 - 2:02You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.
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2:02 - 2:07It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,
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2:07 - 2:09but that's not detailed enough.
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2:09 - 2:13So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.
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2:13 - 2:18But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism
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2:18 - 2:19into many subgroups,
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2:19 - 2:21which was too detailed.
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2:21 - 2:24Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,
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2:24 - 2:27and it looks like this.
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2:27 - 2:30Each country's a bubble.
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2:30 - 2:33The size is the population -- big China, big India here.
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2:33 - 2:38And the color now is the majority religion.
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2:38 - 2:41It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people
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2:41 - 2:42say that they belong.
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2:42 - 2:47It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.
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2:47 - 2:49Islam is the majority religion
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2:49 - 2:52all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,
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2:52 - 2:55Southern Europe and through Asia
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2:55 - 2:57all the way to Indonesia.
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2:57 - 3:00That's where we find Islamic majority.
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3:00 - 3:05And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.
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3:05 - 3:09And that is most countries in America and Europe,
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3:09 - 3:12many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.
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3:12 - 3:15The white here are countries which cannot be classified,
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3:15 - 3:18because one religion does not reach 50 percent
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3:18 - 3:21or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.
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3:21 - 3:23So we were careful with that.
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3:23 - 3:27So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.
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3:27 - 3:29This is in 1960.
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3:29 - 3:32And now I show the number of babies per woman here:
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3:32 - 3:35two, four or six --
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3:35 - 3:38many babies, few babies.
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3:38 - 3:41And here the income per person in comparable dollars.
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3:41 - 3:44The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first
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3:44 - 3:46before you get few babies.
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3:46 - 3:50So low income here, high income there.
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3:50 - 3:51And indeed in 1960,
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3:51 - 3:54you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.
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3:54 - 3:56The exception was Japan.
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3:56 - 3:59Japan here was regarded as an exception.
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3:59 - 4:02Otherwise it was only Christian countries.
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4:02 - 4:04But there was also many Christian countries
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4:04 - 4:06that had six to seven babies per woman.
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4:06 - 4:12But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.
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4:12 - 4:16And countries with Islam as the majority religion,
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4:16 - 4:21all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,
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4:21 - 4:23irregardless of the income level.
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4:23 - 4:27And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.
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4:27 - 4:29Now let's see what has happened in the world.
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4:29 - 4:31I start the world, and here we go.
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4:31 - 4:34Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,
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4:34 - 4:37but the number of babies per woman is falling?
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4:37 - 4:39Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.
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4:39 - 4:44And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,
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4:44 - 4:49as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.
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4:49 - 4:51And when we enter into this century,
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4:51 - 4:55you'll find more than half of mankind down here.
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4:55 - 5:00And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans
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5:00 - 5:04who live in countries with about two children per woman.
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5:04 - 5:08(Applause)
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5:08 - 5:11It's a quite amazing development which has happened.
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5:11 - 5:13(Applause)
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5:13 - 5:16And these are countries from United States here,
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5:16 - 5:18with $40,000 per capita,
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5:18 - 5:21France, Russia, Iran,
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5:21 - 5:25Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,
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5:25 - 5:27Indonesia, India
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5:27 - 5:30and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,
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5:30 - 5:34which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States
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5:34 - 5:37and the same amount of babies per woman.
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5:37 - 5:40I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman
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5:40 - 5:42is surprisingly good in all countries.
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5:42 - 5:44We get that from the census data.
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5:44 - 5:48It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.
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5:48 - 5:49So what we can conclude
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5:49 - 5:52is you don't have to get rich to have few children.
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5:52 - 5:54It has happened across the world.
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5:54 - 5:57And then when we look at religions,
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5:57 - 5:59we can see that the Eastern religions,
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5:59 - 6:02indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion
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6:02 - 6:04that has more than three children.
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6:04 - 6:08Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,
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6:08 - 6:10you see countries all the way.
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6:10 - 6:12But there's no major difference.
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6:12 - 6:15There's no major difference between these religions.
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6:15 - 6:18There is a difference with income.
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6:18 - 6:22The countries which have many babies per woman here,
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6:22 - 6:24they have quite low income.
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6:24 - 6:27Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.
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6:27 - 6:30But there are also countries here
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6:30 - 6:34like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,
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6:34 - 6:37like Yemen and Afghanistan.
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6:37 - 6:40Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,
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6:40 - 6:44which have suffered severe conflicts,
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6:44 - 6:47that they don't have fast population growth.
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6:47 - 6:48It's the other way around.
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6:48 - 6:52In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates
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6:52 - 6:55that have the fastest population growth.
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6:55 - 6:59Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.
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6:59 - 7:01These countries have six children per woman.
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7:01 - 7:06They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.
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7:06 - 7:09But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.
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7:09 - 7:13Congo will go from 60 to 120.
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7:13 - 7:16That's where we have the fast population growth.
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7:16 - 7:20And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.
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7:20 - 7:24Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,
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7:24 - 7:26with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.
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7:26 - 7:30I take them backwards here to their independence,
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7:30 - 7:33when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.
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7:33 - 7:35Just look what they have done.
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7:35 - 7:37It's an amazing improvement,
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7:37 - 7:39from seven children per woman,
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7:39 - 7:42they've gone all the way down to between four and five.
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7:42 - 7:44It's a tremendous improvement.
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7:44 - 7:45So what does it take?
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7:45 - 7:49Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.
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7:49 - 7:51You need to have children to survive.
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7:51 - 7:54You need to get out of the deepest poverty
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7:54 - 7:58so children are not of importance for work in the family.
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7:58 - 8:00You need to have access to some family planning.
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8:00 - 8:05And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.
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8:05 - 8:08But let me illustrate that fourth factor
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8:08 - 8:10by looking at Qatar.
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8:10 - 8:14Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.
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8:14 - 8:17If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,
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8:17 - 8:20which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --
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8:20 - 8:24it's a quite amazing development which had happened.
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8:24 - 8:26Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.
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8:26 - 8:29With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop
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8:29 - 8:31in number of babies per woman.
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8:31 - 8:33And what is the reason in Qatar?
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8:33 - 8:35Well I do as I always do.
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8:35 - 8:39I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --
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8:39 - 8:41It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --
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8:41 - 8:47and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --
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8:47 - 8:51and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.
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8:51 - 8:54Very interesting. Lots to read.
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8:54 - 8:58I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.
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8:58 - 9:02These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,
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9:02 - 9:05and they say the most important factors are:
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9:05 - 9:06"Increased age at first marriage,
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9:06 - 9:10increased educational level of Qatari woman
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9:10 - 9:13and more women integrated in the labor force."
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9:13 - 9:17I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.
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9:17 - 9:19This is a country that indeed has gone through
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9:19 - 9:23a very, very interesting modernization.
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9:23 - 9:25So what it is, is these four:
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9:25 - 9:28Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,
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9:28 - 9:31women should get education and join the labor force
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9:31 - 9:33and family planning should be accessible.
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9:33 - 9:37Now look again at this.
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9:37 - 9:39The average number of children in the world
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9:39 - 9:43is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.
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9:43 - 9:46There are countries up here which are very poor.
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9:46 - 9:50And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.
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9:50 - 9:53I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.
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9:53 - 9:59And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.
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9:59 - 10:02So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,
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10:02 - 10:04it's two.
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10:04 - 10:07We have reached peak child.
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10:07 - 10:09The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.
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10:09 - 10:11We are still debating peak oil,
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10:11 - 10:14but we have definitely reached peak child.
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10:14 - 10:17And the world population will stop growing.
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10:17 - 10:19The United Nations Population Division has said
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10:19 - 10:22it will stop growing at 10 billion.
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10:22 - 10:26But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?
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10:26 - 10:28Well I will show you here.
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10:28 - 10:32I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.
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10:32 - 10:36They are quite useful for educational purposes.
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10:36 - 10:39Each card box is one billion people.
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10:39 - 10:41And there are two billion children in the world.
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10:41 - 10:48There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.
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10:48 - 10:50These are rounded numbers.
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10:50 - 10:55Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,
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10:55 - 10:58almost one between 45 and 60.
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10:58 - 11:00And then it's my box.
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11:00 - 11:02This is me: 60-plus.
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11:02 - 11:04We are here on top.
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11:04 - 11:10So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."
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11:10 - 11:13You can see that it's like three billion missing here.
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11:13 - 11:17They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.
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11:17 - 11:21Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born
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11:21 - 11:24than there were during the last 30 years.
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11:24 - 11:27So what will happen now is quite straightforward.
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11:27 - 11:30The old, sadly, we will die.
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11:30 - 11:34The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.
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11:34 - 11:37Then the old will die.
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11:37 - 11:41The rest will grow older and get two billion children.
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11:41 - 11:47And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.
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11:47 - 11:49(Applause)
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11:49 - 11:53This is the great fill-up.
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11:53 - 11:55It's inevitable.
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11:55 - 11:58And can you see that this increase took place
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11:58 - 12:03without life getting longer and without adding children?
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12:03 - 12:08Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.
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12:08 - 12:11All the religions in the world are fully capable
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12:11 - 12:16to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.
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12:16 - 12:21And we will be just 10 billion in this world,
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12:21 - 12:25if the poorest people get out of poverty,
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12:25 - 12:28their children survive, they get access to family planning.
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12:28 - 12:30That is needed.
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12:30 - 12:36But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.
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12:36 - 12:39So when you discuss and when you plan
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12:39 - 12:42for the resources and the energy needed for the future,
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12:42 - 12:45for human beings on this planet,
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12:45 - 12:47you have to plan for 10 billion.
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12:47 - 12:49Thank you very much.
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12:49 - 12:55(Applause)
- Title:
- Religions and babies
- Speaker:
- Hans Rosling
- Description:
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Hans Rosling had a question: Do some religions have a higher birth rate than others -- and how does this affect global population growth? Speaking at the TEDxSummit in Doha, Qatar, he graphs data over time and across religions. With his trademark humor and sharp insight, Hans reaches a surprising conclusion on world fertility rates.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 13:20
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for Religions and babies | ||
Jenny Zurawell approved English subtitles for Religions and babies | ||
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for Religions and babies | ||
Morton Bast accepted English subtitles for Religions and babies | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for Religions and babies | ||
Timothy Covell added a translation |